Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 25.044770 28.475923 32.169350 36.436346 41.225721 46.431032 52.512507
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 19.862699 24.497521 29.865609 36.525211 44.547279 53.880098 65.541357
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 16.992353 22.083366 28.262720 36.283449 46.384390 58.645588 74.616589
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 15.028967 20.454773 27.317403 36.584064 48.713364 63.986273 84.603347
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 13.861929 19.629201 27.185293 37.737314 52.007752 70.539783 96.316320
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.367244 18.176426 26.042495 37.376945 53.176847 74.287574 104.469580
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.630352 16.192959 23.967092 35.509253 52.068657 74.798483 108.149145
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.977123 15.683277 23.881964 36.376371 54.756030 80.579650 119.326921
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.425919 15.261405 23.866574 37.304321 57.537541 86.587328 131.086846
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.647385 14.415700 23.142301 37.100045 58.600663 90.128374 139.405330
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.887071 13.526407 22.272054 36.587606 59.128346 92.857037 146.598638
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.360579 12.964009 21.858102 36.734444 60.641070 97.091543 156.213507
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.952789 12.575527 21.709043 37.316931 62.910893 102.663790 168.282637
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.511938 12.093465 21.370400 37.563114 64.650086 107.495233 179.444815
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.016177 11.469094 20.740114 37.264265 65.451775 110.840497 188.353248
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.676679 11.091633 20.496111 37.589187 67.284346 115.901379 200.232861
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 5.504966 11.003737 20.743093 38.766229 70.605987 123.532424 216.656626
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 5.106956 10.459198 20.139312 38.398553 71.232940 126.696470 225.762509
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.522096 9.507226 18.728505 36.482706 69.020837 124.934087 226.414460
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 4.373328 9.393874 18.852979 37.372115 71.840017 131.898324 242.322681
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 4.241266 9.302251 19.009181 38.323613 74.811574 139.247048 259.204624
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.974502 8.913664 18.568898 38.114164 75.627015 142.818817 269.566223
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 3.692029 8.468430 17.986020 37.588680 75.812597 145.255541 277.981761